A Low Pressure disturbance is drifting across Florida. Once its spin heads west (into the Gulf) it could begin to get stronger and better organized. According to the National Hurricane Center, conditions are somewhat favorable for tropical development as the system spends time over water. They’re giving the area a “medium chance” for becoming a tropical depression. Should that happen, or not, the area will move westward (tracking across the northern Gulf waters south of Alabama and Mississippi). A large impactful moisture surge will follow, and that will send heavy rains across the upper Gulf region. Ultimately, this area could approach coastal Louisiana in the late Wednesday time frame.
The south Florida forecast continues to look wet and unsettled through Thursday. After that, a drier plume of air should arrive for the upcoming weekend! Our damp period is due to moisture flowing into the region around the aforementioned Low Pressure area. These “on and off” downpours have been steering north and west, and the same trend will be in place Wednesday (despite the slow departure of the disturbance). Ultimately, High Pressure will build back from the Atlantic as we get deeper into the week. While between the differences in air pressure, south Florida will have a stronger breeze. As onshore winds pick up (Wednesday), Atlantic beaches will have a high chance for rip currents. Swimming could be dangerous, especially away from life-guarded beaches.
The most notable weather change involves a drying trend at the end of the week. Rain chances will be quite low considering it’s the heart of the south Florida rainy season. Of course, the trade off with drying is the return of more scorching sunshine resulting in hotter temperatures.