Our south Florida weather seems stuck right now. That’s due to dominant High Pressure across the region. It’s also a pattern that’s promoting light, onshore winds and steamy air over us.
Into Wednesday a weak tropical wave is passing to our south. Most of the associated moisture will be over the northern Caribbean spreading into the Florida Straits. As the big High Pressure center builds southward, our south Florida rain chances will come down, too. Typically in August we find our daily rain chances ranging from 50-60%. However, those chances will be lowered to the 20-30% category. It’s the result of drier air “winning out” versus moisture patches from the Atlantic.
We also maintain a focus on Far-Away Erin in the tropics. Tropical Storm Erin, the season’s fifth named storm, continues to spin across the eastern Atlantic. The system will remain far from land while getting stronger. It is forecast to become a Hurricane (the first of the 2025 season) by Thursday or Friday. There’s still uncertainty about its long term track but the latest forecast models have Erin skirting north of the Lesser Antilles during the late week. Over the weekend, the center is expected to move north of Puerto Rico while there could be effects of gusty winds across the Caribbean islands and rough waters. The consensus of models now show a northward turn. It happens as steering currents carve out a new path for Erin. This eventual track into next week is favorable for the United States as it potentially steers away. We’ll watch and wait over the coming days, anticipating the turn. It does not appear to be a threat but always important to remain vigilant.